| Imagery Source: Wikimedia Commons / Mdbeckwith |
| Information Source: Office for National Statistics |
| 1. Main points |
- UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept), compared with growth of 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
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- GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.3% in Quarter 3 2025, compared with the same quarter a year ago.
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- In output terms, growth in the latest quarter was driven by increases of 0.2% in services and 0.1% in construction; the production sector fell by 0.5%.
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- Real GDP per head is estimated to have shown no growth in the latest quarter and is up 0.8%, compared with the same quarter a year ago.
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- We have updated our estimates for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 to Quarter 2 2025 to be consistent with our UK trade release published on 16 October 2025; this update includes the full implementation of improvements to the measurement of precious metals.
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- There are no changes to headline real GDP quarter-on-quarter growth across 2024 and 2025 as a result of this data update; however, there were some minor 0.1 percentage point revisions to the change in the GDP implied deflator and the change in GDP in current prices for some quarters.
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| 2. Headline GDP figures |
| UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept), compared with growth of 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025 (Figure 1). GDP is estimated to be 1.3% higher in Quarter 3 2025, compared with the same quarter a year ago. |
| Our GDP monthly estimates bulletin, published on 13 November, shows that GDP fell by 0.1% in September 2025, following no growth in August 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication) and an unrevised fall of 0.1% in July 2025. |
| Most notably, production output fell by 2.0% in September 2025 mainly because of a 28.6% decline in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, which detracted 0.17 percentage points from monthly GDP. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported a large fall in vehicle output in September, “as a cyber incident paused production at a major manufacturer, while plant restructuring drove down commercial vehicle volumes”. The Cyber Monitoring Centre categorised this as “a Category 3 systemic event“. |
| In this bulletin, we have opened the dataset outside of our usual National Accounts Revision Policy to fully update the improvements to precious metals estimates in trade in goods for 2024 and 2025. This means we are now consistent with the data published on 16 October 2025 in the monthly trade. No other components of GDP were affected, but more information on the impacts of this is described later in this section. |
| Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). Our recently published analysis shows that the mean absolute revision between the first quarterly GDP estimate and the same quarterly estimate three years later is, on average, plus or minus 0.28 percentage points. Revisions are made when more detailed information becomes available through the comprehensive annual supply and use balancing process, as the data content increases. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in the Blue Book: 2025 article. |
| The GDP growth vintages from 2024 onwards are shown in Table 5. We give more information on uncertainty in Section 11: Data sources and quality. |
| Trade improvements |
| As previously announced in our monthly UK trade bulletin, as part of our Blue Book and Pink Book 2025: trade impact estimates article, we implemented improvements to the way we record trade in precious metals. We removed the double counting of some precious metals bars and included previously under-recorded non-monetary gold that is not in bar form. |
| These trade improvements were implemented as part of our GDP quarterly national accounts bulletin, published on 30 September, for all countries from 1997 to 2023. However, because of a processing error for trade data, these improvements were not fully applied to a small number of countries for 2024 and 2025 at the time. |
| Corrected estimates were subsequently published in our UK Trade: August 2025 bulletin on 16 October 2025. In this GDP bulletin, we opened the dataset outside of our usual National Accounts Revisions Policy to update data for all countries for 2024 and 2025. We have done this to provide consistency with the trade data published on 16 October 2025. |
| The UK trade estimates for our October bulletin incorporated the corrected values for the periods Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 to Quarter 2 2025. However, the associated running of the latest seasonal adjustment also incorporated July and August 2025 (the period being reported); this further shaped the current price and the Chained Volume measures seasonally adjusted series slightly, during 2024 and early 2025, as detailed in the next paragraph. The impact was a little larger for chained volume measures. Further detail is provided in our UK Trade: September 2025 bulletin. |
| As part of our national accounts balancing process, we use alignment adjustments to reconcile the differences between the income, expenditure, and output measures of GDP every quarter. These are used to account for discrepancies that can arise from timing differences – for example, when goods are produced in one quarter but are consumed in the next. We processed the trade in goods data in isolation and, as such, the main impacts of these changes are offset in the alignment adjustment, so there is minimal impact to GDP. |
| Table 2 shows that there are no changes to headline real GDP quarter-on-quarter growth as a result of this update. However, as the size of the revision in trade in goods differed slightly in current price and chained volume measure estimates, we do see minor 0.1 percentage point revisions to the GDP implied deflator and GDP in current prices. No other components of GDP were affected by this change, including the valuables component. |
| 3. Output |
| Output is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025, following growth of 0.3% in the previous quarter. Overall, in Quarter 3 2025, 12 out of 20 of the subsectors of GDP increased; the services sector grew by 0.2%, construction output increased by 0.1%, while production fell by 0.5%. |
| Our GDP monthly estimates bulletin, published on 13 November, shows that GDP fell by 0.1% in September 2025. This followed no growth in August 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication) and an unrevised fall of 0.1% in July 2025. |
| Most notably, production fell by 2.0% in September 2025 mainly because of a 28.6% fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported a large fall in vehicle output in September because “a cyber incident paused production at a major manufacturer, while plant restructuring drove down commercial vehicle volumes”. The Cyber Monitoring Centre categorised this as “a Category 3 systemic event“. These declines in September were partially offset by increases of 0.2% in the services and construction sectors, respectively. |
| Services |
| Services output increased by 0.2% in Quarter 3 2025, following growth of 0.4% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025. Services output is estimated to be 1.6% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) increased by 0.3% in Quarter 3 2025, while consumer-facing services fell by 0.1%. |
| Figure 3 shows that 9 of the 14 service subsectors contributed positively to growth. The largest positive contributor to growth was arts, entertainment and recreation, which increased by 3.5%. Within this subsector, the largest contributor was creative arts and entertainment activities, which grew by 12.5%. |
| The second-largest positive contributions were from the real estate activities sub-sector (up 0.3%), and the public administration and defence; compulsory social security sub-sector (up 0.8%). |
| The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 3 2025 was professional, scientific and technical activities, which fell by 0.6%. Within this sub-sector, there were falls in five of the eight industries. |
| More details on services can be found in our Index of Services, UK: September 2025 bulletin. |
| Production |
| The production sector is estimated to have fallen by 0.5% in Quarter 3 2025, following a 0.8% fall in the previous quarter. Production output is 0.9% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago. |
| The fall in production in Quarter 3 2025 was mainly because of a decline of 0.8% in manufacturing and 1.5% in mining and quarrying. Elsewhere, there were increases of 0.7% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, and a 0.6% increase in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities. |
| Looking at the manufacturing sector in more detail, 5 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors contributed negatively to the fall in the latest quarter (Figure 4). The largest negative contributor to the fall was the manufacture of transport equipment, which declined by 4.5%. This was largely driven by the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (down 10.3%) as outlined earlier in this release. |
| Further details on production can be found in our Index of Production, UK: September 2025 bulletin. |
| Construction |
| Construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 3 2025, following growth of 1.0% in the previous quarter. Repair and maintenance increased by 0.6%, and new work fell by 0.2% in the latest quarter. Within repair and maintenance (R&M), the largest positive contributor came from private housing R&M, which grew by 2.9%. In new work (NW), the largest negative contributor came from private housing NW, which fell by 1.9%. |
| Further details on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: September 2025, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, July to September 2025 bulletin. |
| 4. Expenditure |
| Expenditure is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025, which was mainly driven by increases in gross fixed capital formation, household consumption, net trade, and government consumption (Figure 5). These offset a large negative contribution from gross capital formation: other, which reflects lower valuables and inventories compared with Quarter 2 2025. |
| Household final consumption expenditure |
| There was a 0.2% increase in real household final consumption expenditure in Quarter 3 2025, and it is now 0.7% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Within household consumption, growth was driven by clothing and footwear, recreation, and culture. |
| Net tourism contributed negatively to growth in household consumption in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade, so there is no impact on the gross domestic product (GDP) aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts. Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption grew by 0.2% in the latest quarter. |
| Consumption of government goods and services |
| Real government consumption expenditure grew by 0.3% in Quarter 3 2025 and is 1.9% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. The growth in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects increases in education and social care. |
| Gross capital formation |
| Within gross capital formation, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) grew by 1.8% in Quarter 3 2025, and is now 3.8% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. The increase in the latest quarter was mainly driven by ICT equipment, other machinery and equipment, dwellings, and intellectual property products. |
| Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in Quarter 3 2025 and is now 0.7% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago. |
| Excluding the alignment adjustments, early estimates show that chained volume inventories fell by £657 million in Quarter 3 2025 |
| Net trade |
| The UK’s trade deficit for goods and services is now estimated at 0.6% of nominal GDP in Quarter 3 2025. However, this includes non-monetary gold and other precious metals, which are an erratic series. It can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance. |
| Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit is now estimated at 0.7% of nominal GDP in Quarter 3 2025 |
| 5. Income |
| Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.2% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025 and is up by 5.1%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in nominal GDP was mainly driven by increases in compensation of employees. |
| Compensation of employees |
| Compensation of employees increased by 1.5% in the latest quarter and is up 8.3%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth was driven by increases of 4.6% in employers’ social contributions (mainly in National Insurance contributions) and 0.8% in wages and salaries. |
| Early estimates of private sector wages and salaries are based on estimates of the number of employees in the economy, from our Labour Force Survey (LFS), and average earnings from our average weekly earnings statistics. However, there is some additional uncertainty around the employee estimates used to derive our figures of wages and salaries, because of low response rates in the LFS. We have therefore used additional information from our Earnings and Employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information UK bulletin to help improve the accuracy of the income measure of GDP. |
| Other income |
| Other income is now estimated to have increased by 1.9% in the latest quarter and is 4.6% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago. |
| This was driven by increases in both mixed income (mainly self-employment) and other gross operating surplus. |
| Taxes less subsidies |
| Taxes less subsidies are estimated to have increased by 1.0% in Quarter 3 2025, this follows a fall of 1.2% in the previous quarter. |
| There was a 0.7% increase in taxes (with growth in Stamp duty, Air passenger duty and Wine and Spirits), and a 1.6% fall in subsidies (mainly in Housing Equity Injection), which contribute positively to GDP. |
| Gross operating surplus |
| Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations, excluding the alignment adjustment, fell by 0.7% in Quarter 3 2025 (Table 4). This is mainly because of a fall in private non-financial corporations. |
| There is uncertainty around estimates of non-financial corporations within the GOS of corporations. This is because we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI). |
| 6. Real GDP per head |
| We produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country’s living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article. |
| Real GDP per head is estimated to have shown no growth in the latest quarter, following six consecutive quarters of positive growth (Figure 8); but it is up 0.8%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. There have been some small revisions to GDP per head figures across 2024 and 2025, reflecting revisions to GDP as discussed at the start of the release. |
| Population figures for up to mid-2024 are based on mid-year UK population estimates published on 26 September 2025. Figures for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 are based on an interpolation between UK 2022-based population projections for mid-2025 (as published on 28 January 2025), using the migration category variant and the mid-2024 UK population estimate. Figures for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025 onwards are based entirely on UK 2022-based population projections. |
| For the full document, click the link below |
| Office for National Statistics |
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