| Gross Domestic Product and its major components |
| The Hong Kong economy continued to expand, though at a moderated pace, in the third quarter of 2024 over a year earlier. According to the advance estimates, real GDP grew by 1.8% year-on-year in the third quarter. For the first three quarters as a whole, real GDP grew by 2.6% over a year earlier. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP declined by 1.1% in the third quarter. Looking ahead, the economy should continue to grow for the remainder of the year. While global economic uncertainties and trade conflicts may affect our exports of goods, monetary easing across major central banks and an improved outlook for the Mainland economy following the recent introduction of a wide range of stimulus measures would help support sentiment and activities in our domestic market. Specifically, gradually easing financial conditions should bode well for fixed asset investment. A possible easing of the Hong Kong dollar alongside the US dollar, coupled with the Central Government’s various measures benefitting Hong Kong, the SAR Government’s various initiatives to boost market sentiment and increase employment earnings are conducive to spending by both residents and visitors in the domestic market, though the change in their consumption patterns will continue to pose challenges. The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the third quarter of 2024, as well as the revised GDP forecast for 2024, will be released on 15 November 2024. |
| External sector |
| The value of merchandise exports continued to grow in September 2024 over a year earlier. Exports to the Mainland and the European Union rose further, while those to the United States fell back. Those to many major Asian markets recorded decreases of varying degrees. |
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Looking ahead, while escalating trade conflicts and global economic uncertainties may continue to affect Hong Kong’s export performance, improved prospects of the Mainland economy should provide some support. The Government will monitor the situation closely. |
| Prices |
| Underlying consumer price inflation remained modest in September. The year-on-year increase in food prices eased, while prices of energy-related items declined at a narrowed rate. Price pressures on other major components remained broadly in check. |
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Looking ahead, overall inflation should stay mild in the near term. The continued growth of the Hong Kong economy could pose some moderate upward pressures on domestic costs. Meanwhile, external price pressures should ease further, though uncertainties in the external environment remain. The Government will continue to monitor the situation. |
| Labour market |
| The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stayed low at 3.0% in July – September 2024, the same as June – August 2024. The underemployment rate also remained unchanged at 1.2%. Total employment increased by 1 700 to 3 710 200. The labour force stayed largely steady at 3 830 100. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 2 400 to 119 900. |
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Looking ahead, the overall labour market should remain tight in the near term alongside sustained economic growth, though the employment situation may vary across sectors depending on their business performances. |
| Retail and other economic indicators |
| The value of total retail sales continued to decline in September from a year earlier, but the rate of decline narrowed. On a seasonally adjusted month-to-month comparison, the value of total retail sales recorded an increase. |
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Looking ahead, the near-term performance of the retail sector will continue to be affected by the change in consumption patterns of residents and visitors. Nevertheless, an improved outlook for the Mainland economy following the recent introduction of a wide range of stimulus measures, and a possible easing of the Hong Kong dollar alongside the US dollar with the commencement of the US interest rate cut, would be conducive to boosting sentiment and supporting spending. In addition, the Central Government’s various measures benefitting Hong Kong, and the SAR Government’s various initiatives to boost market sentiment and increase employment earnings would also benefit the retail sector. |
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The Policy Address this year includes various measures that would benefit the retail sector, such as developing new tourist hotspots, relaxing visa application criteria for some ASEAN countries, and boosting “silver consumption”. The Policy Address has also launched a series of measures to assist small and medium enterprises (SMEs), including those in the retail sector, in addressing the challenges encountered in the process of economic restructuring. These include relaunching the principal moratorium under the SME Financing Guarantee Scheme to ease the repayment pressure of enterprises, expanding the geographical coverage of E-commerce Easy to the 10 ASEAN countries, and relaunching the Hong Kong Shopping Festival in the next two years to help SMEs develop e-commerce business to expand their markets. These measures would help the retail sector in transitioning through the economic restructuring period and improve its prospects. |
| For the full document click the link below: |
| Hong Kong: Inflation & GDP Q3 2024 |
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