Canadian Natural Resources Limited: Announces 2025 Budget

Canadian Natural's (TSX: CNQ) (NYSE: CNQ) President, Scott Stauth, commented on the Company's 2025 budget "Our high quality, diversified asset base combined with our flexible capital allocation strategy is a significant competitive advantage. Our disciplined and focused approach allocates capital and optimizes the product mix based on the highest return projects, maximizing value for our shareholders.
Our 2025 operating capital budget of approximately $6 billion targets to deliver value growth and strong returns on capital. Annual average production in 2025 is targeted to be between 1,510 MBOE/d and 1,555 MBOE/d, resulting in production growth of approximately 170 MBOE/‌d or 12% over 2024 levels based on the mid-point of corporate guidance. This significant corporate growth includes the previously disclosed strategic acquisition of the AOSP and Duvernay assets completed in 2024. With our current shareholder returns framework, this growth is targeted to deliver production per share growth of 12% to 16%, based upon recent strip pricing.
Our diversified production mix remains balanced and is targeted to consist of approximately 47% light crude oil, NGLs and Synthetic Crude Oil ("SCO"), 26% heavy crude oil and 27% natural gas, based on the mid-point of our corporate production guidance range."
Canadian Natural's Chief Financial Officer, Mark Stainthorpe, continued "Our commitment to shareholder returns and a strong financial position is supported by our effective and efficient operations which drive significant free cash flow generation. Our financial strength gives us the flexibility to deliver on our plan and continue to drive long-term shareholder value.
In 2024, we delivered significant returns to shareholders through share repurchases and two dividend increases, with the most recent quarterly dividend increase to $0.5625 per common share announced in October 2024. Canadian Natural has increased its dividend for 25 consecutive years with a compound annual growth rate ("CAGR") of 21% over that time frame.
With our disciplined 2025 capital budget, low maintenance capital requirements and a long-life declined asset base, we target to generate strong returns on capital and continue to deliver returns to our shareholders while also reducing our net debt, as per the Company's free cash flow allocation policy."
2025 BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS
Canadian Natural's strategy of maintaining a large, diverse portfolio of high-quality assets, supported by our long-life low-decline production, provides the Company with a significant competitive advantage as it enables the Company to maximize shareholder value through flexible capital allocation and optimized product mix. The Company's focus on effective and efficient operations drives high return on capital projects that deliver industry-leading free cash flow(1) which will strengthen the balance sheet and be returned to shareholders.
  • Canadian Natural's 2025 operating capital budget is disciplined, targeted at approximately $6 billion(1), and includes capital related to several acquisitions for which agreements between parties have been reached, with closings targeted in Q1/25, subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions. With this capital, the Company is targeting production growth in 2025 as well as mid to long-term production and capacity growth. In addition, the Company has approved approximately $135 million of capital, consisting of $90 million related to carbon capture and $45 million related to a one-time office move. Highlights of the 2025 budget include:
    • Canadian Natural has a unique and diverse asset base which allows the Company to adapt quickly to changing market conditions. The Company's 2025 budget targets a level-loaded drilling program throughout the year and will maintain flexibility to manage effective capital allocation.
    • The Company is progressing with its highly capital-efficient drill to fill development strategy across its Conventional E&P assets, including the following:
      • The Company targets to drill 361 net wells across our extensive crude oil and liquids-rich natural gas assets.
        • The program includes 97 net light crude oil wells, primarily in the Montney, Dunvegan and Mannville as well as 82 net liquids-rich natural gas wells, primarily in the recently acquired Duvernay assets and in our Montney assets.
        • The Company is targeting to drill 174 heavy crude oil wells, of which 156 are multilateral wells primarily in Mannville.
    • The Company is continuing with its highly capital-efficient thermal in situ drilling program, including the following:
        •  At Kirby, the Company is targeting to drill a Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage ("SAGD") pad in Q1/25 and a second SAGD pad in Q4/25, which are targeted to come into production in Q4/25 and Q4/26 respectively.
        • At Pike, the Company is targeting to drill two SAGD pads in the first half of 2025, which will be tied into the existing Jackfish facilities. These two pads are targeted to come into production in 2026 and keep the Jackfish plants at full capacity.
        • The Company is targeting to drill and bring on production 25 infill wells across its thermal in situ assets during the year, which access additional reservoirs and bring forward reserves while effectively optimizing steam-to-oil ratios ("SOR").
    • Canadian Natural continues to pursue opportunities to debottleneck and increase production at both Horizon and the Athabasca Oil Sands Project ("AOSP").
      • At Horizon, the Company completed the reliability enhancement project in 2024 which increased the capacity of the zero declines, high-value SCO production at Horizon over a two-year timeframe by shifting the planned turnarounds to once every two years from the previous annual cycle. As a result, 2025 will be the first year without a planned turnaround, resulting in high targeted utilization at Horizon.
        • With additional infrastructure in place following the completion of this project, the Company can perform certain maintenance activities with zero production impact. Capital savings are targeted to be approximately $75 million in 2025 from 2024 levels as a result of no planned turnaround impacting production.
      • At Horizon, the Company is progressing its Naphtha Recovery Unit Tailings Treatment ("NRUTT") project that targets incremental production of approximately 6,300 bbl/d of SCO following mechanical completion in Q3/27.
      • At AOSP, Canadian Natural completed the acquisition of an additional 20% working interest in Q4/24, bringing total ownership to 90%, and contributing significant sustainable free cash flow generation and long-term shareholder value. Additionally, following the completion of the debottlenecking project at the Scotford Upgrader completed in Q4/24, gross capacity increased by 8,000 bbl/d, 7,200 bbl/d net to Canadian Natural.
(1) Non-GAAP Financial Measure. Refer to the "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures" section of this press release and the "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures" section of the Company's MD&A for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024, dated October 30, 2024.
2025 Capital Budget(1) ($ millions) 2025 Budget
Conventional E&P $ 3,200
Thermal and Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading $ 2,815
Subtotal - Operating Capital Budget $ 6,015
Carbon Capture ($90 million) & One-time Office Move ($45 million) $ 135
Total Capital Budget $ 6,150
(1) The 2025 capital budget reflects budgeted net capital expenditures, excluding abandonment expenditures related to the execution of the Company's abandonment and reclamation programs in North America and the North Sea. The 2025 budget includes capital related to several acquisitions for which agreements between parties have been reached, with closings targeted in Q1/25, subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions.
 
2025 Targeted Production
  • Canadian Natural is targeting a production guidance range of 1,510 MBOE/d to 1,555 MBOE/d in 2025, which represents growth of approximately 170 MBOE/d or 12% over 2024 levels, based on the mid-point of the range.
    • Production per share growth in 2025 is targeted to range between 12% and 16% when compared to 2024 levels as a result of the Company's strong free cash flow generation, which, after dividends, we target to allocate 60% to shareholders in 2025.
    • The targeted production mix in 2025 is balanced, consisting of approximately 47% high-value light crude oil, NGLs and SCO, 26% heavy crude oil and 27% natural gas, based upon the mid-point of corporate production guidance.
    • Liquids production guidance, including SCO volumes, is targeted to be 1,106 Mbbl/d to 1,142 Mbbl/d, representing absolute growth of approximately 119 Mbbl/d or 12% over 2024 based on the mid-point of the 2025 range. The Company's long-life low decline production represents approximately 77% of its total targeted liquid production in 2025.
      • At AOSP, a planned turnaround at the non-operated Scotford Upgrader is targeted for Q2/25, when the Upgrader will run at reduced rates for 73 days, impacting net annual average production by approximately 31,000 bbl/d.
      • In Offshore Africa, the Company targets to send our Baobab Floating Production, Storage and Offloading vessel ("FPSO"), which has been on-station for 20 years, to dry-dock for refurbishment. Production from Baobab is targeted to be suspended in late January 2025 and resume in Q2/26, impacting 2025 net annual production by approximately 7,800 bbl/d.
    • Natural gas production is targeted to range between 2,425 MMcf/d to 2,480 MMcf/d, representing absolute growth of approximately 305 MMcf/d or 14% over 2024 levels, based on the mid-point of the 2025 range.
2025 Targeted Production(1) (before royalties)   2025 Budget  
Natural Gas (MMcf/d)   2,425 - 2,480  
Conventional E&P Crude Oil & NGLs (Mbbl/d)   296 - 307  
Thermal and Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading (Mbbl/d)   810 - 835  
Total Liquids (Mbbl/d)   1,106 - 1,142  
Total MBOE/d   1,510 - 1,555  
(1) Reflects planned downtime for turnaround activities in all areas, including Canadian Natural's 90% ownership in AOSP and the Scotford Upgrader. Note: Rounded to the nearest 1,000 bbl/d.  
 
CONFERENCE CALL & PRESENTATION
This press release will be accompanied by a conference call and presentation, where the Company will discuss its 2025 budget and strategy for maximizing shareholder value.
Note: Presentation materials will be available for download from our website 30 minutes before the start of the event.
The event will take place on Thursday, January 9, 2025, at 7:00 a.m. MST / 9:00 a.m. EST.
Dial-in to the event:
North America 1-800-717-1738 / International 001-289-514-5100
Webcast presentation:
Access to the webcast can be found on our website, www.cnrl.com
Conference call replay:
North America 1-888-660-6264 / International 001-289-819-1325 (Passcode: 62842#)
Canadian Natural is a senior crude oil and natural gas production company, with continuing operations in its core areas located in Western Canada, the U.K. portion of the North Sea and Offshore Africa.
For the full document click the link below:
Canadian Natural's
Stay ahead of the curve! Subscribe to InsidEntity for daily updates on all your favourite companies.
Back to All Announcements